Mars may be a hellhole, but the moon is not far behind
Welcome to the second space race. You can be forgiven for experiencing déjà vu.
A new competition to establish a permanent human presence on the Moon is underway, led by the United States and China, alongside other nations and private companies. Unlike the 20th-century space race focused on planting flags, this effort aims to build permanent lunar bases. NASA, under Administrator Jared Isaacman, has accelerated plans with announcements in 2026, including robotic landers, communication satellites, and a nuclear power plant. Initial missions, starting in 2028, will focus on exploration and testing technology, with long-term habitation planned for the 2030s. The goal is to create a network of research stations, mining plants, and landing pads spanning hundreds of square miles. The competition is driven by geopolitical motives, as the first to establish a base may define the Moon's future role, whether as a military outpost, manufacturing hub, or scientific preserve.
The Moon offers unique advantages for scientific and economic exploration. Its surface preserves ancient rocks that hold clues to the solar system's formation. The lack of atmosphere makes it ideal for telescopes to observe the early universe, particularly on the far side, which is shielded from Earth's radio interference. Additionally, the Moon's low gravity (about one-sixth of Earth's) makes launching rockets into deep space far more energy-efficient than from Earth. The lunar south pole is a key target due to permanently shadowed craters that may contain water ice, which can be purified for drinking, used to grow crops, or split into oxygen and hydrogen for rocket fuel. These resources could reduce the cost and complexity of sustaining a base and enable deeper space missions, including trips to Mars.
The Moon is an extremely harsh environment for human habitation. Daytime temperatures can exceed 250°F (121°C), while nighttime temperatures drop below –200°F (–129°C). The lunar south pole is even more extreme, with temperatures in shadowed craters falling below –410°F (–246°C), making it one of the coldest places in the universe. Astronauts would face 14 days of scorching sunlight followed by 14 days of frigid darkness. The Moon also lacks an atmosphere, exposing the surface to constant cosmic radiation and frequent meteoroid impacts. Sharp, electrostatically charged lunar dust poses another threat, as it can damage equipment and irritate lungs. These conditions make building a safe and sustainable base a significant engineering challenge.
Space radiation is one of the most serious threats to lunar astronauts. It comes in two forms: galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) and solar radiation. GCRs are high-energy particles from distant supernovae and neutron star mergers that can penetrate thin shielding and damage cells, increasing cancer risk. Solar radiation includes solar flares (bursts of radiation) and coronal mass ejections (CMEs, volleys of magnetized plasma). A powerful solar flare could expose astronauts to lethal doses of radiation within hours, as occurred during the Apollo missions. To mitigate this, bases may require thick shielding or underground habitats, such as lava tubes—natural tunnels formed by ancient volcanic activity. NASA has not yet committed to subterranean designs but may need to consider them to ensure long-term safety.
The Moon is constantly bombarded by space rocks, ranging from tiny meteoroids to larger asteroids. Earth's atmosphere burns up smaller rocks, but the Moon has no such protection, making even pebble-sized debris a hazard. These tiny space bullets could puncture spacesuits or damage equipment. Larger asteroids (over 50 feet or 15 meters in diameter) pose an existential threat, though planetary defense systems like NASA's DART mission (which successfully deflected an asteroid in 2024) and nuclear options are being explored to mitigate such impacts. However, smaller asteroids are difficult to detect, often spotted only months or weeks before impact. Solutions include burying habitats or using rapid-fire projectile systems on the Moon to break approaching asteroids into smaller, less harmful fragments.
Lunar dust, created by billions of years of volcanic activity, is a persistent and corrosive problem. It is sharp, electrostatically charged, and adhesive, clinging to everything it touches. Apollo astronauts experienced 'lunar hay fever' from inhaling the dust, which irritated their eyes and lungs, and it damaged seals, gears, and spacesuits. NASA has developed the electrodynamic dust shield (EDS), a lightweight system using opposing electrical currents to repel charged dust. Tested successfully in labs and on the Moon in 2025, the EDS may be widely used in habitats and equipment. Other innovations include gecko-inspired lint rollers and ionized nitrogen gas 'blasters' to neutralize and remove dust. However, as the base expands, frequent rocket landings and takeoffs will stir up dust, potentially sandblasting infrastructure despite landing pads placed over 3,000 feet away.
For a lunar base to thrive long-term, it must become self-sustaining, reducing reliance on Earth for supplies. This requires using the Moon's resources, such as water ice for drinking, oxygen, and rocket fuel, as well as mining metals and minerals for construction. Autonomous robots will play a critical role in building, maintaining, and expanding the base without human oversight. Simon Middleburgh, co-director of the Nuclear Futures Institute, compares this effort to 'starting civilization from scratch.' Over decades, these initial bases could grow into small cities, resembling the science fiction visions of the past. However, achieving this will demand overcoming immense technical, financial, and safety challenges, with costs estimated in the tens of billions of dollars for the initial phases alone.
