Agriculture relies on fossil fuels. It’s costing us.

Fertilizer prices have surged in 2026 due to rising fossil-fuel costs, particularly natural gas, which is essential for producing ammonia—a key ingredient in most fertilizers. Natural gas serves two roles in fertilizer production: it provides the energy needed for chemical reactions and is directly used as a raw material. When natural-gas prices spike, as they have because of the war in Iran, fertilizer prices follow closely. For example, the price of urea, the most commonly used fertilizer, reached $850 per metric ton in April 2026, which is 80% higher than before the conflict and the highest level since 2022. This price volatility is part of a broader trend affecting industries worldwide, as fossil fuels underpin much of the global economy, from transportation to manufacturing. Fertilizer production is also a significant source of greenhouse-gas emissions, contributing about 2% of the global total.

The war in Iran has directly disrupted global fertilizer trade because about one-third of the world’s seaborne fertilizer shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for maritime traffic. The conflict has effectively closed this route to commercial shipping, making it harder for countries to import fertilizers. The closure disproportionately affects poorer nations that rely on imports, according to a World Bank report. While the United States produces most of its nitrogen fertilizers domestically, some imports still come from the Persian Gulf. The Strait of Hormuz’s closure adds to existing supply chain disruptions, creating uncertainty in fertilizer availability and prices. These trade disruptions compound the challenges caused by rising production costs, making the situation even more volatile for farmers and food systems.

High fertilizer prices are expected to persist at least through 2028, according to a report from CoBank, a major agricultural lender in the U.S. This prolonged price hike is due to long-term damage to production infrastructure. The war in Iran has affected or shut down 31 ammonia plants in the Middle East, while 20 plants in Russia have been damaged in recent years. These closures reduce global supply, keeping prices elevated. Farmers, who operate with very thin profit margins, are particularly vulnerable to these price spikes. Higher fertilizer costs can also drive up food prices for consumers, as farmers pass on their increased expenses. For instance, diesel prices, another fossil-fuel-dependent input for farming, have also surged this year, adding to the financial strain on agricultural operations.

Companies like Pivot Bio and Switch Bioworks are developing alternative fertilizers that use genetically edited microbes to provide nitrogen to plants, reducing reliance on synthetic fertilizers made from fossil fuels. These microbial fertilizers are designed to be cost-competitive with conventional options and are not affected by natural-gas price fluctuations. For example, Pivot Bio increased production, dropped prices, and offered farmers three-year price locks when the war in Iran began. Currently, these products can replace about 25% of synthetic fertilizers, with a goal of reaching 40% to 50% in the future. While they are not a complete solution, they represent a step toward decoupling food production from fossil fuels. Experts argue that the current system, where food production depends on fossil fuels, is unsustainable in the long term.