Agriculture relies on fossil fuels. It’s costing us.
The war in Iran has exposed the fragility of a global food system still tethered to fossil fuels, where fertilizer prices—already volatile—are now surging due to disrupted trade routes and skyrocketing natural gas costs. This dependency doesn’t just inflate grocery bills; it threatens food security for the world’s poorest nations, raising urgent questions about whether the agriculture sector can decouple from an energy system increasingly prone to geopolitical shocks.
How exactly are fossil fuel prices linked to fertilizer costs?
Natural gas serves as both an energy source and a chemical input in ammonia production, a key fertilizer component. When natural gas prices spike—such as during the conflict in Iran—fertilizer production becomes more expensive, driving up costs for farmers. Additionally, about one-third of global fertilizer trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a route now disrupted by the war, further constricting supply.
What are the broader economic consequences of these fertilizer price spikes?
Higher fertilizer costs erode already thin profit margins for farmers, which can translate into higher food prices for consumers. The ripple effects extend beyond agriculture, as diesel prices—another fossil fuel-dependent input for farming—have also surged, compounding financial strain across the food supply chain.
What alternatives to fossil-fuel-based fertilizers are emerging, and how effective are they?
Companies like Pivot Bio and Switch Bioworks are developing fertilizers that use genetically edited microbes to provide nitrogen to plants, reducing reliance on synthetic fertilizers. These alternatives can replace up to 25% of synthetic fertilizer today, with potential to reach 40–50% in the future. Unlike conventional fertilizers, their production isn’t tied to natural gas prices, offering price stability.
Why might fertilizer prices remain high even after the immediate conflict subsides?
The war has caused lasting damage to ammonia production, with 31 plants in the Middle East affected or shut down and 20 in Russia similarly impacted in recent years. This structural damage, combined with ongoing geopolitical instability, suggests fertilizer prices could stay elevated through at least 2028, according to industry forecasts.
Ce que ça pourrait changer
The current crisis underscores the unsustainability of tying food systems to fossil fuel-dependent inputs, risking prolonged food insecurity and economic strain for farmers and consumers alike. Without diversifying supply chains or accelerating the adoption of alternative fertilizers, the agriculture sector may face recurring volatility tied to energy markets and geopolitical conflicts. The push for microbial fertilizers could mark a turning point, but their scalability and effectiveness remain critical uncertainties.
