Trade winds

2026’s El Niño is shaping up to be a doozy – it’s already affecting global shipping, fish behavior and heat

<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/758972/original/file-20260909-50-gvrpvi.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.1&rect=0%2C0%2C3064%2C2042&q=45&auto=format&w=1050&h=700&fit=crop" /><figcaption><span class="caption">With deepening drought, worsened by El Niño, Panama Canal authorities cut the number of ships allowed to transit.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/aerial-view-of-the-one-contribution-container-ship-sailing-news-photo/2271855697?adppopup=true">Martin Bernetti/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>El Niño is here, and forecasters warn that it’s likely to be bigger and stronger in 2026-27 than any El Niño event recorded in at least 150 years. </p> <p>During <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/understanding-el-nino">strong El Niños</a>, global air and ocean temperatures spike, and precipitation patterns shift dramatically – flooding rains deluge places that are normally