2026’s El Niño is shaping up to be a doozy – it’s already affecting global shipping, fish behavior and heat
With deepening drought, worsened by El Niño, Panama Canal authorities cut the number of ships allowed to transit. Martin Bernetti/AFP via Getty Images El Niño is here, and forecasters warn that it’s likely to be bigger and stronger in 2026-27 than any El Niño event recorded in at least 150 years.
El Niño is a naturally occurring phenomenon that disrupts weather patterns worldwide, originating in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Normally, trade winds blow from east to west along the equator, pushing warm surface water toward Southeast Asia. During El Niño, these winds weaken or even reverse, allowing warm water to flow eastward toward South America. This shift alters global weather patterns, causing extreme events like droughts or floods in different regions. The phenomenon is part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, which alternates between warm El Niño and cooler La Niña conditions every few years. Scientists monitor El Niño’s intensity by measuring sea surface temperatures in a specific Pacific region called Niño 3.4. A strong El Niño occurs when temperatures in this area are at least 2°C (3.6°F) above the long-term average.
The 2026-27 El Niño is predicted to be exceptionally strong, with sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region expected to reach 3°C to 4°C (5.4°F to 7.2°F) above average. This would make it the strongest El Niño event in at least 150 years, surpassing previous record-breaking events like 1982-83 and 2015-16, which peaked at around 2.6°C (4.7°F) above average. The intensity is measured by comparing current or expected temperatures to a long-term average. This extreme warming is occurring on top of already record-high global ocean temperatures, which have been consistently high since 2023. August 2026 was the hottest month on record globally, according to Europe’s Copernicus climate service.
El Niño’s extreme heat and shifting weather patterns are already affecting ecosystems and wildlife. In Ecuador, fishermen must travel farther from shore to catch tuna as fish migrate to cooler waters, reducing their catch. Coral reefs in many areas face a severe risk of bleaching, a harmful process where corals expel the algae they rely on for food, often leading to death. In Panama, seabirds like blue-footed boobies, normally found in Ecuador and Peru, have appeared in large numbers earlier than usual because their prey, sardines and anchovies, moved northward to escape the heat. These disruptions highlight how El Niño disrupts marine life and food chains, with long-term consequences for biodiversity.
The 2026 El Niño is already impacting human activities and economies. In Panama, farmers have been unable to plant crops due to drought, and residents worry about drinking water shortages during the dry season, which typically runs from January to April but is predicted to start a month earlier. The Panama Canal, a critical global shipping route, is experiencing reduced water levels in Lake Gatun, its main water source. The Panama Canal Authority has begun restricting the number and size of ships passing through to conserve water, leading to higher transit costs and slower deliveries for global trade. These restrictions are expected to worsen as El Niño intensifies, affecting industries worldwide.
El Niño causes dramatic shifts in precipitation patterns, leading to extreme weather in different regions. Typically wet areas like Southeast Asia, Australia, northern South America, Central America, and the Caribbean are expected to face severe droughts in 2026. Conversely, normally dry regions such as the coasts of Ecuador and Peru may experience strong storms and life-threatening floods. These changes can disrupt agriculture, water supplies, and daily life. For example, drought in Central America is almost guaranteed during El Niño, while heavy rainfall in the U.S. West Coast is less predictable and varies between events. Each El Niño behaves differently, making it challenging to forecast specific local impacts.
Predicting El Niño’s intensity and exact impacts is difficult because the phenomenon is highly complex and still not fully understood. Scientists use multiple computer models to forecast its development, but each model provides slightly different predictions. The final forecast is an average of these models, which serves as a best estimate rather than a certainty. Additionally, every El Niño is unique, with timing and effects varying significantly. Some impacts, like drought in Central America or global temperature spikes, are more predictable, while others, such as heavy rainfall in California, are less consistent. This uncertainty makes it essential for communities to prepare for a range of possible outcomes.
