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2026’s El Niño is shaping up to be a doozy – it’s already affecting global shipping, fish behavior and heat

<name>Steven Paton, Research Biologist, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Smithsonian Institution</name> <foaf:homepage rdf:resource="https://theconversation.com/profiles/steven-paton-2763502"/>· 10 septembre 2026

With deepening drought, worsened by El Niño, Panama Canal authorities cut the number of ships allowed to transit. Martin Bernetti/AFP via Getty Images El Niño is here, and forecasters warn that it’s likely to be bigger and stronger in 2026-27 than any El Niño event recorded in at least 150 years. D…

Résumé

What is El Niño?

El Niño is a naturally occurring phenomenon that disrupts weather patterns worldwide, originating in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

Normally, trade winds blow from east to west along the equator, pushing warm surface water toward Southeast Asia.

During El Niño, these winds weaken or even reverse, allowing warm water to flow eastward toward South America.

This shift alters global weather patterns, causing extreme events like droughts or floods in different regions.

The phenomenon is part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, which alternates between warm El Niño and cooler La Niña conditions every few years.

Scientists monitor El Niño’s intensity by measuring sea surface temperatures in a specific Pacific region called Niño 3.4.

A strong El Niño occurs when temperatures in this area are at least 2°C (3.6°F) above the long-term average.

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