Disappearing lakes and AI are helping scientists map Arctic permafrost thaw in near-real time
Thermokarst ponds, or trough ponds, typically form when the ice in permafrost melts. They can also drain quickly.
Permafrost is ground that stays frozen at 0°C (32°F) or below for at least two years in a row. It is common in Alaska and other Arctic regions, where the soil often contains ice. When this ice melts due to rising temperatures, the ground can collapse, creating sinkholes similar to those in Florida but on a much larger scale. Permafrost thaw is happening more frequently across the Arctic because temperatures there are rising at two to three times the global average rate. This thawing poses risks to infrastructure like buildings, roads, and pipelines, which may sink or become damaged as the ground beneath them shifts. For example, the Seward Peninsula in Alaska has seen substantial property damage from such collapses.
One clear sign of permafrost thaw is the formation of thermokarst ponds and lakes. These are depressions in the ground that fill with water when ice-rich permafrost melts and the land subsides. Thermokarst ponds can appear suddenly and are often visible in satellite images. Another sign is the abrupt disappearance of lakes, which occurs when thawing permafrost creates new drainage channels, causing the water to drain away. This process can happen in just a few hours after an unusually warm summer. For instance, in the summer of 2018, nearly 200 of the approximately 4,600 lakes on the Seward and Baldwin peninsulas in Alaska lost more than a quarter of their area due to thawing permafrost.
Scientists use satellite imagery and aerial photos, dating back to the late 1940s, to track changes in Arctic permafrost landscapes. These images help identify where lakes have formed or disappeared over time. Artificial intelligence (AI) is now used to analyze new satellite images quickly, detecting signs of permafrost thaw such as the appearance of new ponds or the loss of existing ones. An international team of scientists, working through the Permafrost Discovery Gateway, has mapped and monitors over 4 million lakes and 70 million thermokarst ponds across the Arctic. This data provides insights into where permafrost is thawing most rapidly.
Lakes in the Arctic can disappear suddenly when permafrost thaw creates new stream channels that drain the water. This process can turn a lake that took a millennium to form into a dry basin in just a few hours. For example, in June and July 2026, around 30 more lakes in the Seward and Baldwin peninsulas were affected by drainage. While this process happens every summer, not all lake changes are caused by permafrost thaw. Other factors like seasonal floodplains, wetlands, and wildlife (such as beavers) can also alter lake levels. However, the sudden drainage of lakes is a strong indicator of permafrost thaw.
Previously, information about permafrost changes was often published years after the fact, making it difficult for communities to plan ahead. Today, near-real-time data from satellite monitoring and AI analysis is available to researchers and local leaders. This allows communities to make informed decisions about construction, infrastructure, and land use based on the current state of permafrost. For example, the new maps can show where the ground is underlain by ice-rich permafrost, which is risky for building, and where the permafrost has less ice, making it safer for development. This helps reduce the risk of property damage and infrastructure failures as the Arctic continues to warm.
