Arctic infrastructure was built on frozen ground – drones and digital twins can help spot the permafrost thaw coming

Cities and towns in the Arctic, such as Wainwright, Alaska, were constructed on ground that remains frozen year-round, known as permafrost. This frozen soil often contains large amounts of ice, which is invisible from the surface. As temperatures rise—up to two to three times faster than the global average—this ice begins to melt. When it does, the ground can sink, crack, or erode, destabilizing roads, buildings, and pipelines. For example, a 2025 study estimated that permafrost thaw could cause between $37 billion and $51 billion in damage to buildings and roads in Alaska alone. Along the coast, melting permafrost accelerates erosion, bringing homes closer to the ocean’s edge and increasing the risk of collapse.

Permafrost is ground that stays at or below 32°F (0°C) for at least two consecutive years. Not all frozen ground contains the same amount of ice, and the distribution of ice and unfrozen water varies even within short distances, such as a single city block. This unevenness makes it difficult to predict which areas will sink or erode more severely. Thawing can also be worsened by human-made structures, like roads or buildings, which alter how snow accumulates and water drains. Along the Arctic coast, waves and thawing work together to erode bluffs, as seen in Utqiaġvik, Alaska, where partial collapses in 2023 and 2024 brought the eroding edge dangerously close to infrastructure.

To assess the stability of permafrost, engineers typically need to drill boreholes to collect samples, but this method is expensive and impractical for large areas. Instead, researchers use geophysical imaging techniques, such as very low frequency electromagnetic surveying (VLF-EM), to map underground conditions without direct contact. VLF-EM uses electromagnetic signals from distant transmitters to detect differences in the ground’s electrical conductivity. Since salty, unfrozen water conducts electricity better than frozen ground, this method can reveal areas where permafrost has thawed. While it doesn’t provide a perfect underground picture, it helps engineers identify where to focus further investigation.

Infrastructure in the Arctic is designed to last decades, so engineers need to forecast how permafrost thaw will affect stability over time. A 2026 study examined permafrost stability across Alaska’s Arctic Coastal Plain, which includes Prudhoe Bay and much of the state’s oil industry operations. The study found that if greenhouse gas emissions remain high, the proportion of infrastructure at risk stays below 10% until around mid-century. However, between the 2060s and 2080s, the risk increases rapidly. By the 2090s, about 80% of buildings, 60% of roads, and 90% of pipelines are projected to be at risk of damage from sinking land.

Digital twins are computer models that replicate real-world environments and infrastructure, allowing engineers to simulate and predict changes over time. Researchers are developing digital twins for Arctic infrastructure by combining data from drones, geophysical surveys, and sensors. For example, a team used fiber-optic cables to collect temperature and seismic data from a 330-foot (100-meter) section of a road embankment in Utqiaġvik. This data was used to update a computer model that combines heat-transfer physics and machine learning, improving predictions of permafrost temperature changes and infrastructure performance as new data becomes available.