Federal spending on climate change before 2024 election boosted incumbents of both parties

In 2022, the U.S. Congress passed the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), a major federal law that allocated $370 billion to combat climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The law focused on providing financial incentives, such as tax credits for purchasing electric vehicles (up to $7,500 per vehicle) and subsidies for making commercial buildings more energy efficient. Notably, the IRA was passed without a single Republican vote in the U.S. House or Senate, as it only passed the Senate due to a tiebreaking vote by Vice President Kamala Harris. Despite this opposition, the law authorized spending that primarily benefited Republican-held congressional districts, with 79% of the law’s investment directed to areas represented by Republican lawmakers.

By the time of the 2024 election, over $204 billion had been spent on clean energy projects across the U.S., combining private investment with federal incentives from the IRA. These funds were distributed unevenly, with some districts receiving nothing and others receiving nearly $8 billion. For example, Republican-held districts in North Carolina and Georgia received large investments to expand electric vehicle plants, while Mississippi’s 2nd Congressional District, represented by Democrat Bennie Thompson, received $588 million. The law’s tax credits and subsidies attracted corporate investments, such as a Toyota battery-manufacturing plant in North Carolina, which benefited from the law’s incentives.

An analysis by researchers found that the IRA’s funding helped incumbent House members of both parties in the 2024 election. Incumbents in districts that received more IRA funding saw an average increase of 0.9 percentage points in their 2024 vote share compared to their 2022 results. For instance, Democrat Bennie Thompson’s vote share rose from 60% in 2022 to 61.8% in 2024 in Mississippi’s 2nd District, while Republican Tim Walberg’s vote share increased from 62% to 65.7% in Michigan’s 5th District. Both parties highlighted the economic benefits of the investments during campaigns, with Republicans emphasizing economic development opportunities and Democrats directly mentioning the IRA.

The study suggests that voters may reward incumbents for bringing federal funds to their districts, regardless of their party affiliation or their stance on the IRA. While the law’s climate goals were politically contentious, the economic benefits—such as job creation and business investments—appeared to outweigh these divisions at the local level. The analysis accounted for factors like district demographics and prior voting patterns but still found a clear link between IRA funding and improved electoral performance for incumbents. This phenomenon is sometimes called pork barrel politics, where elected officials seek to direct federal spending to their districts to gain voter support.