As cities prepare for 2026’s super El Niño, some crucial blind spots can’t be ignored
An affordable-housing crisis and a growing homeless population led Los Angeles to declared a shelter crisis during the 2015-16 El Niño. David McNew/Getty Images This year’s El Niño has the potential to be one of the strongest in living memory , and the evidence is showing up around the world.
El Niño is a natural climate pattern that occurs every few years when temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean rise, disrupting normal weather patterns worldwide. During El Niño, typically wet regions may become unusually dry, while dry areas can experience extreme rainfall and flooding. Global average temperatures also tend to increase, leading to dangerous heat both indoors and outdoors. The current El Niño, expected to peak in late 2026 and early 2027, is predicted to be one of the strongest in living memory. Early signs include record-breaking heat in the U.S., drought affecting shipping in the Panama Canal, an exceptionally busy hurricane season in the Pacific, and unusually quiet conditions in the Atlantic. These shifts can cause extreme heat, destructive storms, and flooding in many parts of the planet through early 2027.
In the U.S., El Niño can lead to severe weather conditions such as coastal flooding, erosion, and damage to homes and infrastructure, especially along the West Coast. The combination of El Niño conditions with king tides (exceptionally high tides) and rising sea levels increases these risks. Past El Niño events have caused flood damage and landslides that shut down highways and disrupted public services for long periods. For example, in December 2025, heavy rainfall broke levees in multiple communities in the Seattle area, highlighting the vulnerability of aging infrastructure like levees and dams. Repairing such large-scale infrastructure is expensive and time-consuming, often leading to delayed responses when failures occur.
Disaster planning for El Niño often focuses on infrastructure but overlooks the needs of vulnerable populations, including people experiencing homelessness, older adults, and individuals with disabilities. These groups face higher risks and greater challenges in preparing for and responding to extreme weather. For instance, people with limited mobility may struggle to evacuate quickly or access shelters, while those with limited financial resources may lack options for relocating or making home improvements. In Los Angeles, homeless individuals often camp in dry riverbeds that become high-risk flood zones during El Niño, as seen when heavy rains in 2015-16 swept away camps. Addressing these social vulnerabilities requires coordination across housing, healthcare, emergency management, and social services, but such efforts are often underfunded and complex to implement.
A study by researchers at Tufts University and the author identified significant gaps in climate adaptation and disaster preparedness policies in high-risk U.S. communities. Governments frequently prioritize physical infrastructure investments, such as seawalls or drainage systems, over policies addressing social vulnerabilities. While infrastructure projects can be tied to specific funding streams, reducing social vulnerability requires sustained, cross-sector coordination and long-term investments. For example, after a wildfire or major flooding, affected individuals may need temporary rental assistance, affordable housing, transportation to shelters, or help accessing medications. These needs are often difficult to address because underlying issues like affordable housing shortages, poverty, and healthcare access are deeply entrenched and cannot be resolved by short-term disaster policies.
To identify and address blind spots before extreme weather strikes, some communities are adopting proactive strategies. In Los Angeles, emergency managers are conducting *scenario exercises* to practice responses to El Niño-driven events, bringing together county departments and community disaster coordinators to test existing plans. These exercises help identify gaps and determine what additional resources or policies might be needed. Similarly, the San Francisco Bay Area and Durham County, North Carolina, are publicly discussing El Niño risks to encourage resident preparedness. In Oceanside, California, city officials formed an El Niño working group that includes representatives from public works, engineering, fire, and police departments to coordinate planning, communications, and monitoring of the San Luis Rey River. These approaches aim to prevent severe storms from becoming major disasters by improving readiness and coordination.
