The rise of electoral democracy

Electoral democracy has expanded significantly over the past two centuries, transforming how countries choose their leaders. In the late 18th century, most leaders inherited power through monarchy or were selected by elite groups without elections. By 2025, 165 out of 199 countries had both elected parliaments and governments, a stark contrast to just two countries (the United Kingdom and the United States) in the 1700s. This shift reflects a global trend where elections replaced inheritance and force as the primary method of leadership selection. However, progress has not been linear; setbacks occurred during World War II and the early 1970s. Recent years have seen a decline from a peak of 176 electoral countries in 2016, with military coups and civil wars in places like Afghanistan and Niger reversing gains. Despite these challenges, the dominance of elections over other methods remains a defining feature of modern governance.

Voting rights were once restricted to a privileged few, typically men who owned property or paid taxes. Over time, legal barriers based on gender, income, and ethnicity were dismantled, leading to universal adult suffrage in most countries. The expansion began in the mid-1800s, with countries like France and Switzerland granting voting rights to men. New Zealand became the first country to grant women the vote in 1893, marking a milestone in democratic progress. By the end of World War II, fewer than two dozen countries had universal voting rights, but this number surged to nearly 150 by the Cold War's end. Today, almost all adult citizens in most countries can vote, though some restrictions remain, such as age limits or disenfranchisement for criminal convictions. The rise of universal suffrage has been a key factor in making elections meaningful and inclusive.

Elections alone do not guarantee democracy; they must be competitive for voters to hold leaders accountable. Historically, many elections lacked real competition, with incumbents often winning due to fraud, intimidation, or lack of opposition. Over recent decades, however, elections have become more competitive, with voters gaining greater freedom to choose among multiple candidates. A key indicator of this shift is the increase in electoral turnover, where elections lead to a change in government. In the late 18th and early 19th centuries, such turnovers were rare, but they became more common after World War I and surged in the 1990s, reaching over half of all countries. By 2025, 111 out of 199 countries had experienced recent electoral turnover. While this trend reflects growing political competition, it is not a perfect measure, as elections can be competitive without turnover and vice versa.

An electoral democracy is defined by three core conditions: elected governments and parliaments, universal voting rights, and competitive elections with a meaningful opposition. Until the late 19th century, no country met all these criteria. The first breakthrough occurred in 1893 when New Zealand granted women the vote and already had competitive elections. Democracies did not become a majority of countries until the 1990s, and by 2025, 117 countries qualified as electoral democracies, while 82 did not. The spread of electoral democracies has been uneven, with significant setbacks, such as the decline from 20 democracies in the 1930s to just nine by the decade's end. Recent years have also seen a decline, with 13 countries losing their democratic status since 2015, including Côte d'Ivoire and Nicaragua.

While the number of electoral democracies has grown, the proportion of the global population living under democracy tells a more nuanced story. In 1900, fewer than one million people lived in a democracy, all in New Zealand. By 1965, this number had grown to 1.2 billion, and today, about 4 billion people—roughly half the world's population—live in democracies. However, the total number of people without democratic rights has also increased due to population growth and recent democratic backsliding. For example, around 400 million fewer people live in democracies today compared to a decade ago, with countries like Myanmar, Nigeria, and Turkey experiencing declines. This highlights that while democracy has expanded, billions still lack these rights, and progress is fragile.