Oil and gas industry expected surplus – but war brought shortage instead

In 2023, the International Energy Agency (IEA), a global energy research organization, predicted that by 2028 the world’s oil companies would produce more oil than people wanted to buy.

This forecast led to lower oil prices, which were too low to attract investment for new oil wells and refineries.

The IEA based its predictions on factors like slowing economic growth, increasing adoption of electric cars, and policies aimed at reducing pollution.

However, these projections did not account for major geopolitical disruptions.

For example, the IEA expected oil demand to peak in the mid-2030s, but by 2023, it revised this estimate to before 2030 due to the rapid rise of electric vehicles.

Despite these adjustments, the forecasts remained uncertain because they relied on assumptions about human behavior, technology adoption, and government policies that are difficult to predict accurately.