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Why fuel prices may go higher still

<name>Joshua Busby, Professor of Public Affairs, The University of Texas at Austin</name> <foaf:homepage rdf:resource="https://theconversation.com/profiles/joshua-busby-1185089"/>· 28 septembre 2026

Oil-related prices are high, but poised to go even higher. Afry Harvy/iStock / Getty Images Plus If you think your energy costs are high now, the situation may be about to get a whole lot worse. With traffic in the Strait of Hormuz – normally the primary route for oil leaving the Middle East – hove…

Résumé

Current oil price rise

Oil prices have surged from $65 per barrel before the Iran conflict began in February 2026 to over $100 per barrel by mid-September 2026.

Initially, analysts feared prices could reach $150 or even $200 per barrel due to the conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran.

However, prices have not yet hit those levels.

The conflict has disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for oil leaving the Middle East, which typically carries most of the region’s oil exports.

Currently, traffic in the strait is below 15% of prewar levels, reducing global oil supply.

The global oil market has already used many tools to stabilize prices, such as releasing oil from strategic reserves, but these measures are now largely exhausted, leaving prices vulnerable to further increases.

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