Cascading uncertainty

Antarctica’s ice loss is locked in, and extra snowfall won’t save it – that’s bad news for low-lying coastal areas elsewhere

<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/762576/original/file-20260928-50-m9ewz1.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.1&rect=0%2C49%2C1164%2C776&q=45&auto=format&w=1050&h=700&fit=crop" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A glacier front meets the sea in Antarctica. The ice sheet holds enough water to raise global sea level by about 190 feet (58 meters).</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Qiyue Sun</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Sea-level rise is one of the most visible signs of climate change, one that is threatening low-lying coastal communities around the world. Today, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10196-1">about 1 billion people</a> live in coastal areas; about 100 million live within 1 meter (3.3 feet) of sea level, highly exposed to coastal flooding.</p> <p>Over the long term, when it comes to future sea-level rise, one place matters more than any other: Antarctica. </p> <p>The frozen continent holds enough ice to rai